A Chance To Diversify Our Economy.

There has been a heated debate over the past few weeks concerning a new report published by the IFS (Institute of Fiscal Studies). Both sides have been claiming to have the upper hand when it comes to what the report says. Overall, for me anyway, the report has not revealed a lot more new information about the economics of the independence debate. The main points I have gathered are that:

•  The GERS report clearly states that Scotland contribute more than it gets back percentage wise, yet due to the fact that the UK is in a recession Scotland get slightly more numerically from Westminster than we pay back in taxes, yet is still in a healthier financial position to the rest of the UK to the tune of £90 billion.
• Following independence, Scotland's fiscal position would be slightly better than that of the UK, due full control over economic resources resulting in higher tax revenues for the Scottish Government.
• We would inherit less debt to GDP per head compared to the rest of the UK.
• A major asset for the Scottish economy would be our oil revenues, which would provide a significant initial boost to our economy, but due to the finite nature of the resource, could be less of an asset to us  in later decades. 

On face value, the report is pretty balanced, both sides can lay claim to have valid points to shout about. Yet, as you might have expected, the same old rhetoric prevails from the unionist side, points which I have most certainly rubbished at an earlier stage. 

One of the arguments presented by the unionist side when referencing the report is that Scotland's economy would be too reliant on North Sea Oil revenues (around 20% of our GDP comes from oil revenues), and due to the volatile nature of the resource, a price fluctuation could be disastrous for the Scottish economy. And that the oil will run out at some point in the next 50 years, so it is not a wise resource to base your economy on. 

First of all concerning the point made about the over-reliance the Scottish economy would have on oil, the very notion that the oil revenues are a bad thing to base our economy on is nonsense. A quick look at how much debt we would inherit from the UK proves just how much of a valuable asset this is to Scotland. We would inherit approximately £80 billion of the UK national debt, 8.4%. We would also inherit 90% of UK oil and gas reserves, which amount to 24 billion barrels and wholesale value of £1.5 trillion.

This would mean our economic assets, just from oil, would outweigh our debt by ten times. This is a safety net every country in the world would want to have right now in this time of economic uncertainty. It is certainly better than having our economy 60% reliant on a banking sector in which the money can stop almost instantaneously, and is precisely the thing which ruined our economy in the first place.

Recent analysis has show that our economy is not as reliant on oil as the most successful nation in Europe per head at the current moment, Norway. The statistics were compiled by the Scottish Parliament's Information Center (SPICe), and they clearly show that, over the past 12 years, the Scottish economy has been 2.2 times less reliant on oil revenues than our Nordic neighbour. The Nordic economy was 30% reliant on oil revenues, whilst Scotland's is 13.6% reliant.  Having control over its own economy, Norway has managed to build up a $600 billion oil fund to ensure that the revenues gained will last far into the future from when the resource runs dry. 

Then there is the question of, what happens when the oil runs out? Well, that will not be as remotely as bad for Scotland as it first sounds. With full control over our economic resources, Scotland can use the extra capital gained from the industries which flow down to Westminster at the current moment, to diversify our economy and make it not reliant on North Sea oil.

The obvious first investment would be in our renewable energy sector. Currently Scotland has 50% of Europe's wind power, 25% tidal, and 10% wave. Any country choosing not to invest in a sector with so much potential would be daft. Independence would give Scotland the chance to re-industrialise our nation again into researching, developing, and producing renewable energy. The Scottish government are preparing to achieve 50% of Scotland's energy from renewable sources by 2015; and 100% by 2020. Recent progress has shown that to be well on track, with 40% already being met from renewable's.

To bring this to a conclusion, it can therefore be seen that the unionist claims that our economy is reliant on, or to put it how they say it 'better together', in the UK are wrong once again. With full control of our economic resources we, the people of Scotland, can reshape our country into a more profitable, equitable, equal, and greener society, that aims to direct its revenues into raising the standard of living, and the general well being of our population. Rather than spending it unnecessarily on nuclear weapons, bloated defence budgets, and illegal foreign wars. 

The Economics of Independence.

The economic impact of independence for Scotland is the largest and most heated part of the debate. Facts, figures and opinions and flung around anywhere and everywhere to the point where someone who is impartial to the debate really does not know where to start or what side to trust. Thankfully for these people I have researched the economic side of the debate in great detail since the independence campaign started gaining real traction in 2007 with the first SNP government.

What I have found most in the economic part of the debate is that it is the most rife with ignorance. People tend to look at the debate and assert almost automatically that Scotland must be completely subsidised by Westminster, and the fact that we have an annual budget from Westminster must mean that Scotland has nothing in the way of exports to support its economy. Both these claims have been found time and time again to be completely false; and something which I hope to prove in this article, as it only takes a quick look at the bare numbers to see that they add up favourably towards independence.

Let us firstly deal with the importance of the annual budget which Scotland receives from Westminster every year. Currently our budget stands at £29'266.8 million (£29 billion), this budget pays for everything in Scotland. It isn't hard to look at this budget and reach the conclusion that: "This obviously must be the only thing which the Scottish economy depends on!". A quick look at the GERS (Government Expenditure and Revenues Scotland) report in 2010 however, reveals that claim to be wrong.

We currently have 8.4% of the UK population, contribute 9.6% of UK tax revenues and receive 9.3% of Westminster spending, this right away disproves the claim that we are indeed 'subsidy junkies'. The more crafty unionists however will try to play off the fact that Scotland, although contributing more, runs a budget deficit of around £9 billion per year.(That is the nature of a worldwide recession where spending is higher than revenues) When you compare our economic standing with that of the rest of the UK however, one can see that we are in a much healthier financial state. The rest of the UK as a whole runs a deficit close to £100 billion per year; this means that Scotland's public finances are £90 billion better off than the rest of the UK.

One can then quickly turn that around by saying: "Well, even if we are in a healthier financial state than the rest of the UK, if we were independent we would have nothing else to support our economy... other than oil, which will run out anyway". Well yes, the nature of a finite resource is that they will run out eventually, that does not mean however that the revenues from it will somehow disappear the day the oil runs out. Even without the oil revenues anyway, the Scottish economy exports tens of billion more than we receive from out current budget.

The North Sea oil and gas revenues are Scotland's largest economic resource, but it is not our only one, and despite common opinion, it does not make up the majority of our economic resources. UK Oil & Gas values the North Sea reserves at £1.5 trillion. If Scotland were to go independent. We would inherit 90% geographical share of the reserves; this would account to £1.35 trillion worth of reserves.If we now take Scotland's 8.4% population share of the UK £1 trillion national debt, then it is easy to see how quickly we could pay off that debt, just using the oil revenues.

Our share of the debt would be £84 billion. If current production levels maintain after 2014, then Scotland could pay off it's national debt within a matter of at least 6 years, as per annum revenues are around £30 billion. This would then mean that a debt-free Scotland could save up our revenues to ensure that Scotland would be ready to deal with any future crises with ease. This has already been demonstrated in Norway, who, having complete control of their economic resources, was able to develop an oil pension fund worth £600 billion, and were able to bail out their banks with ease; and are currently the only country in Europe not in debt and not running a budget deficit. But it is no use however dwelling on the past economic mismanagement of Scotland at the hands of Westminster, the more relevant question is: What can this do for a future Scotland?

The creation of an oil fund would ensure that an independent Scotland would always have enough finances to fund its public services, and ensure that Scotland would never have to undertake the savage public finance cuts demonstrated by the Conservative Westminster Government of today. It would also ensure that even after the reserves run out, in 50-100 years, the revenues would benefit countless future generations. Instead of being squandered on funding the failed London banking sector, harbouring nuclear weapons 30 miles away from our largest city, and sending young men to die in pointless foreign wars. We would have a real chance to benefit our society.

Moving away now from the issue of oil in an independent Scotland, what else does Scotland have to sustain its economy? It turns out to be quite a lot. The latest Global Connections Survey published by the Scottish Government in 2010 reveals that, other than oil, Scotland does have a lot of economic resources and exports to rely upon. A quick look at the report reveals that Scotland's international exports account to £22 billion, and our exports to the rest of the UK would are £44 billion; together this puts our exports at £66 billion, more than twice our current budget. The Global Connection Survey however does not include oil reserves, as they are treated as extra-regio resources. The inclusion of oil revenues would bring our exports to over £100 billion per year. The report states that:

"The combined value of international and rest of UK exports in 2010 (excluding oil and gas) are provisionally estimated at £66.9 billion, of which £31.0 billion is attributable to service sector companies and of which £26.7 billion is attributable to manufacturing sector companies.  The increase in total exports of +£2.3 billion since 2009 is due to a rise in the manufacturing sector of +£1.7 billion and a rise of +£955 million from the mining, and quarrying & extraction of petroleum sector, despite the a very slight decline of -£150 million from the service sector."

As you can see, in recent quarters the GDP for Scotland has been rising.

 Another part of our economy that can demonstrate how Scotland is not reliant on oil to survive can be seen in our GDP. In 2011, our Gross Domestic Product stood at £124 billion. This excludes extra-regio resources. When including the extra-regio resources. The figure rises up to £154 billion. Therefore it can bee seen that Scotland is only reliant on oil for 20% of our economy.  We only see £30 billion of this back per year... does that sound like a fair deal to Scotland, when we are told we must all suffer together?

To draw this to a conclusion you can see that the Scottish economy is indeed diverse, and made up of many components and industries. We are not 'subsidy junkies', our economy is not reliant on just oil. Scotland has all of the necessary parts in place to create a progressive and successful 21st century social-democratic society. All you have to do is vote Yes.  

It's a Debate About Prosperity, Not Survival.

Hearing Unionist talk on a daily basis, there seems to be a prevalent conception that the entire independence campaign is based on the question of "How will Scotland be able to survive after independence?". This seems rather odd to me, there has been countless admissions from the unionist side that there is no doubt that Scotland would be able to at least stand on its own two feet. The most prevalent in my memory comes from David Cameron who said clearly: "Of course I am not saying Scotland could not survive on its own." If the largest and most public advocate of the benefits of the union, the Prime Minister of Great Britain, agrees that Scotland could survive, then that should be a sufficient clarification for the unionists... unfortunately it never is.

I find it a regrettable situation when the debate around Scottish independence comes back to Scotland's basic ability to survive as an independent country. Time and time again, on both sides of the debate, the claims that we are too wee, too poor, and too stupid to be an independent country have been proved to be based on nothing but total ignorance, and revealed to be a pathetic use of scaremongering.

No one in the mainstream debate surrounding Scottish independence makes the claims that we could not survive as an independent country. (even "Better Together" verifies that in their latest video) Everyone knows that Scotland is a resource rich, energy rich country which has some of the highest education levels in the world. The crux of today's debate is whether or not Scotland is more prosperous as part of the United Kingdom or not, I have much more respect for those on the unionist side who take an informed part in that debate.

I do not need to delve into the nitty-gritty details of how we will be a more prosperous country in the event of independence. - you will be able to find much evidence of that on this blog - What I do want to say however is that the Scottish people need to get away from the childish claims that we could not survive as independent country. Some of my favourite claims which I have heard along these lines are such things as:

"Sean Connery lives in America.", "When the oil runs out, all we'll have is whiskey and shortbread tins!", "How will we even be able to feed ourselves?!", "The only reason Switzerland does well is because they stole Nazi gold after WWII!", "Us Scots can't manage anything!".

While these claims are certainly full of comic value, they do raise a serious point. These are the things which people actually believe about their own country. I have often believed that in a debate the most important thing a person can do is educate those who are wrong, as if you do not, it is ignorance, not truth, that will win. And this is certainly true in the debate about surrounding Scottish independence. The most important thing we on the Yes side of the debate can do over these next two years it to educate those who still believe in these misguided, antiquated, and severely ignorant views.



Linked here, is some evidence of the sustainability of the Scottish economy:

·         http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0039/00390896.pdf

·         http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Business-Industry/Energy/Energy-sources/traditional-fuels/oilandgas

·         http://www.decc.gov.uk/assets/decc/Statistics/source/renewables/et6_1.xls

·         http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-16532440

·         http://www.scotland.gov.uk/News/Releases/2012/04/seveneconomicstrengths15042012

·         http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/political-news/the-myths-of-independence.15629679

·         http://www.newsnetscotland.com/index.php/scottish-economy/4235-would-an-independent-scotland-be-financially-sound

·         http://www.johnogroat-journal.co.uk/Home/Spare-us-the-phoney-analysis-Scotland-can-hold-her-own-7601111.htm

·         http://www.oilofscotland.org/mccrone_oil_reports.html

·         http://www.scotsman.com/the-scotsman/opinion/cartoon/george_kerevan_we_can_still_rise_and_be_a_triple_a_nation_again_1_2040202

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy

Believe in yourself, believe in Scotland.

Consolidating my recent musings, I have been thinking a lot about what the root cause of disbelief among Scots towards our ability to manage our country independently might be. When looking at modern day Scotland, it strikes me as odd that there is a common belief that there is no way we could possibly manage our own country. We are an established first world society, with a stable infrastructure, a world-class education system, a National health Service which is fully paid for and ran by us, a buzzing business world that is outperforming the rest of the UK in many sectors, a net production on food, (we export more than we eat) and not to forget a country rich in natural resources, both finite and renewable. Any person from the less-fortunate parts of the world would want to benefit from our social-democratic society in a heartbeat.

So, where does the pessimism towards our potential stem from? Well, if we take a look at what the state (not nation) of Britain was, and still is, we can quickly arrive at one of the root-causes. The state of Britain was formed as an imperialistic state made out of sub-servant nations. Its sole purpose was to take advantage of the opportunities for establishing an empire at the time of its creation. And what does any empire not want? Rebellion. An imperialistic state depends on its sub-servant nations being obedient and productive to maximise expansion, and the best way to do this is to consolidate the cultures of its member nations into a fabricated state culture. This is exactly what happened to Scotland. Our culture was taken away and replaced by British culture, leading to anyone who still involves themselves in Scottish culture being seen as alien and dissident. Up until recently, with the resurgence of nationalism, anyone seen to be indulging themselves in Scottish culture was seen as being extremely parochial and regressive. 

It is not nationalism which is regressive however, it is the British state. You do not have to look far to see the desperate attempts by Westminster to keep that fabricated 'British nation' going, just think back to the recent onslaught we received from the British media regarding the 'Jubilympics'. What Britain represents is an archaic imperialistic view of the world, and the consolidation of nations' cultures in the name of pragmatism. The fact of the matter is the British state was not born out of a unionist-fabricated romanticised love which each nation of the British Isles felt for each other – neither was it born out of a democratic vote - it was born out of pragmatism and the desire of the aristocracy to maximise their economic potential.

 I personally find it insulting when a Westminster politician tries to make out that it was the British public which chose to enter a union. That, is nonsense, the masses had no say in the matter. The people of Scotland and England were forced into a parliamentary union in 1707 by the top echelons of society in order to exploit the masses on a global scale. One of the founding principles of the British state was greed, after the union was formed the Scottish aristocracy received huge amount of capital from Westminster; no doubt arranged bribery. The people of Scotland were so annoyed at the loss of their independence, that there were months of riots in Glasgow, and marshal law had to be established in Glasgow. These initial rebellions were crushed however, and with time, British rule prevailed

So there's the historical reasons for modern disbelief among many Scots, and that's the thing about history it is harsh and unfair, but it does serve as good hindsight for how we can make progressive decisions for our nations’ future. What can be said then to make Scots believe in Scotland? Well, we have a very long list of our contributions to the world. These include industrial might (Glasgow once built a fifth of the world's shippage), creative prowess, and intellectual strength (Television, telephone, tarmac, penicillin and radar to name a few). In fact, to paraphrase the British prime-minister Winston Churchill: "Only the ancient Greeks may have contributed nearly as much too modern society as the Scots." 

Scotland can also be proud of its progressive social-democratic values. Scotland, throughout democratic history, has traditionally voted for social-democratic governments, where all citizens of our country, regardless of race, religion, sex or creed, receive equal welfare provisions. Where everyone can receive some of the best education in the world with primary, secondary and higher education provided based on the merits of the person, not their wealth. Where the most vulnerable in our society are provided the support they need by the government which we elect, not profit-driven corporations. Where all workers can be assured that the country they contribute to provides a safety-net for them for whatever ill fortune they may have. Where our public services, such as an NHS, police, fire-service, and councils are protected from cuts, and privatisation, so that they are focused on providing the best service they can to the people of their country, rather than trying to claw back the money they have lost from government cuts and not working for profit due to privatisation.

To bring this conglomeration of thoughts to a conclusion, I would say that Scotland does have a lot to be proud of, both in our history and in our modern day Scotland. Do not be fooled by the pessimistic ramblings of the unionist parties. Scotland is a country with a strong intellect, a hard-working population, a 21^st century economy that is not just stable but has the potential to become exponentially successful for our population size and progressive social-democratic values. Believe in yourself, and believe in your country; fear will only hold our country back, it is positivity that a modern Scotland needs.

Based On Principle Not Party-Politics

It is a saddening state of affairs when the independence movement is automatically assumed to be a sole SNP movement, and that everything to do with Scottish independence is to do with the SNP. The march for Scottish independence on the 22nd of September 2012 however, forever destroyed this claim. For anyone who attended the event, or indeed seen videos or photos of the event, will have seen that the independence campaign is a vast cross-party, cross-social and cross-ideological campaign that stretches far beyond the role of the SNP.

Attending the march myself I saw a myriad of different groups showing their support for the campaign, this ranged from the Scottish Socialist Party, Solidarity, Scottish Greens, LGBT, SMNT (Scottish Militant Ninja Turtles), Pensioners, Youth and Students, Women, Christians, Trade Unionists, Labour, International campaigners, SNP and those marching just out of pure principle (I also saw 'Shinty players for independence'...). The breadth and variety of the groups taking part is the main signal from the march, it is a campaign based purely out of principle not politics.

The cohesion and solidarity demonstrated by all groups at the event shows that this is a campaign based on securing the best future for Scotland, for all those who live in Scotland, not for securing political power. All participating groups in the event are fighting for the principles of a fairer society, democracy, a secure economy for future generations, and just being able to make our own decisions.

All groups involved in the campaign want a Scotland in which they can have a real say and influence on how their country is governed. To not be governed by an unrepresentative parliament, built on old-world principles of greed and imperialism, both of which values transpire well into today's world. You do not have to look far to see examples of this. Both the wars in Iraq & Afghanistan were blatant resource-grab attempts by Westminster, Iraq is one of the largest oil producers in the world and Afghanistan has the 2nd largest deposits of rare earth metals on earth.

The greed demonstrated by Westminster is also extremely prevalent in our own country. Millions suffer savage welfare cuts by Westminster which leave the most vulnerable in our society worse off. Billions per year are being pumped into a failed program of 'quantitative easing', which has inflated our currency to never before seen levels, to bail-out a failed, unregulated banking sector which is the very thing which ruined our economy. All the while high-flying bankers who caused the economic disasters are receiving bonuses in the billions and corporation-tax cuts from Westminster.

All groups at the event want an end to this mismanagement. We were marching for the principle of being able to manage our own country, and shape our destiny in a way which provides a real benefit for the people of Scotland. I want to stress by 'Scotland', I do not mean just Scots. Anyone who lives in Scotland and considers it their home, I consider just as Scottish and myself. Politics and ideological differences may divide us, but we are united through principle, standing up for fairness and self-determination.

Based on Co-operation, not separation.

Part of a short-series of articles aiming to explore the positives of the Yes campaign demonstrated in the march for independence.

Many seem to speculate on the Yes movement and draw the conclusion that in wanting independence, we are separating ourselves from the British Isles, and indeed the rest of the world. What was demonstrated on the 22^nd of September in the March & Rally for Scottish Independence however, proved quite the opposite.

Those who attended the march may have noticed the myriad of foreign flags being shown at the event; all from other small European nations such as our self, in pursuit of their own self-determination. The nations shown included: Catalonia, Flanders, Venice, Wales and the Basque Country, all of whom I dare say rivalled our show of Saltires and Lion Rampant’s.

Every nation representing themselves at the event melded together harmoniously, all chatting, dancing, and chanting together as one. What this shows is that the march was not just about Scotland’s self-determination, it represents the worldwide movement for those who want to determine their own destiny. It represents the freedom which all people desire, to be able to know that all the decisions being made in their country are fully representative of their views, aspirations, needs, and priorities.

It represents countries not wanting to be treated as a mere region, which is only there in the central governments’ mind to finance the capital, or to be used as a mere stepping stone to power. Scotland, and all other small European nations, just want to be a part of the world. We want to co-operate together as equal partners to create a fairer, more democratic world which the people of small nations like our own have a chance to contribute to and shape the world we live in, by having our voices fully represented on a national and international scale, not being filtered through an unrepresentative parliament.

The enthusiasm for co-operation demonstrated at the march by all nations just shows how well people get along when they put their views across as equal partners from different countries, because then it can be assured that both sides are fully representative of the people’s views, not a compromise from being part of a dysfunctional union in which unequal nations are said to have an equal input on an international scale.

Scotland does not want independence based purely on our desire to separate ourselves from the rest of the world. We want to be a part of, and contribute to the world. We want to work closely with our European and international neighbours to create a fairer and more democratic world.

Scottish Food & Drink Industry Booming.

The most recent reports from the Scottish Government show that the Scottish food & drink industry is booming. Recent statistics show that the whole industry is worth an estimated £5.4bn to the Scottish economy. In stark contrast to the many news stories published concerning how many British industries are on the decline, the Scottish food & drink industry is in fact, on the rise, and has exceeded previous expectations. 

The original expectations were to increase the industry value to £5.1 billion by 2017. A figure which was already surpassed six years ago. Whiskey, the main product for Scotland in the industry, in 2011 was worth an estimated £4.23 billion (a 23% rise on 2010).

Our exports have seen a major rise. France is up 18%, with £825 million. The USA is up 30%, with £726 million. Exports in Asia have seen a large rise of 44%, Singapore totals £319 million, and China totals £92 million.

What this demonstrates is the strength and ingenuity of the Scottish people & economy even in hard times when the British economy is falling further into recession, economic output is severely flat-lining, and budget deficit reductions are doing virtually nothing to help our total debt of £1 trillion. This recent growth in the Scottish economy however will do nothing to benefit Scotland if the revenues are just going into subsidising a failing economic policy that is dragging the country further into recession.

With independence, (you knew this was coming) Scotland could have full control over all its economic levers and ensure fully that growths in our economy can go back into benefiting the Scottish economy, and not into the pockets of Westminster. It is a well-known fact that Scotland contributes more to the union than we get in return. The GERS report (Government Expenditure & Revenues Scotland) concluded that we have 8.4% of the UK population, contribute 9.6% of the tax revenues,(not counting  and receive 9.3% of government spending. 

With all revenues from the Scottish economy going back into the Scottish economy, we could multiply the growth we have seen under the status quo exponentially.

It is preposterous to state that a government which Scotland did not vote for, who has a completely different political standing from the vast majority of Scottish voters, and is London-centric in its policies can deliver an economic plan for Scotland which will fully ensure that our economy properly grows.

A detailed breakdown of the revenues from foreign exports is provided here:

2011 food and drink exports:Total food: £1.16bn – up 8.6% on 2010 – up 62% on 2007
Total drink: £4.23bn – up 23% on 2010 – up 50% on 2007

Top 5 whisky markets 2011:United States: £655m (+31%)
France: £535m (+27%)
Singapore: £318m (+44%)
Spain: £259m (-3.4%)
South Africa: £166m (-1.9%)

Top 5 Food Markets 2011:France: £289.3m (+5%)
Irish Republic: £103.9m (+5.8%)
Spain: £87.4m (+0.7%)
Italy: £79.7m  (+16.1%)
Germany: £75.5m (+3.6%)